Video clip: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two

  • Bởi Admin
    04/05/2011
    2 phản hồi
    Chủ đề: Kinh tế

    According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Great Recession ended almost two years ago, in the summer of 2009. Yet we’re all uneasy. Job growth has been disappointing. The recovery seems fragile. Where should we head from here? Is that question even meaningful? Can the government steer the economy or have past attempts helped create the mess we’re still in?

    In “Fight of the Century”, Keynes and Hayek weigh in on these central questions. Do we need more government spending or less? What’s the evidence that government spending promotes prosperity in troubled times? Can war or natural disasters paradoxically be good for an economy in a slump? Should more spending come from the top down or from the bottom up? What are the ultimate sources of prosperity?

    Keynes and Hayek never agreed on the answers to these questions and they still don’t. Let’s listen to the greats. See Keynes and Hayek throwing down in “Fight of the Century”! And, if you’re interested in learning more about the ideas debated in the video, check out additional content and references that will help you get the story behind “Fight of the Century”.

    “Fight of the Century” Lyrics

    Written by John Papola and Russ Roberts

    KEYNES

    Here we are… peace out! great recession
    thanks to me, as you see, we’re not in a depression
    Recovery, destiny if you follow my lesson
    Lord Keynes, here I come, line up for the procession

    HAYEK

    We brought out the shovels and we’re still in a ditch…
    And still digging. don’t you think that it’s time for a switch…
    From that hair of the dog. Friend, the party is over.
    The long run is here. It’s time to get sober!

    KEYNES

    Are you kidding? my cure works perfectly fine…
    have a look, the great recession ended back in ’09.
    I deserve credit. Things would have been worse
    All the estimates prove it—I’ll quote chapter and verse

    HAYEK

    Econometricians, they’re ever so pious
    Are they doing real science or confirming their bias?
    Their “Keynesian” models are tidy and neat
    But that top down approach is a fatal conceit

    REFRAIN

    Which way should we choose?
    more bottom up or more top down
    …the fight continues…
    Keynes and Hayek’s second round

    it’s time to weigh in…
    more from the top or from the ground
    …lets listen to the greats
    Keynes and Hayek throwing down

    KEYNES

    We could have done better, had we only spent more
    Too bad that only happens when there’s a World War
    You can carp all you want about stats and regression
    Do you deny World War II cut short the Depression?

    HAYEK

    Wow. One data point and you’re jumping for joy
    the Last time I checked, wars only destroy
    There was no multiplier, consumption just shrank
    As we used scarce resources for every new tank

    Pretty perverse to call that prosperity
    Rationed meat, Rationed butter… a life of austerity
    When that war spending ended your friends cried disaster
    yet the economy thrived and grew faster

    KEYNES

    You too only see what you want to see
    The spending on war clearly goosed GDP
    Unemployment was over, almost down to zero
    That’s why I’m the master, that’s why I’m the hero

    HAYEK

    Creating employment’s a straightforward craft
    When the nation’s at war, and there’s a draft
    If every worker was staffed in the army and fleet
    We’d have full employment and nothing to eat

    REFRAIN REPEATS

    HAYEK

    jobs are a means, not the ends in themselves
    people work to live better, to put food on the shelves
    real growth means production of what people demand
    That’s entrepreneurship not your central plan

    KEYNES

    My solution is simple and easy to handle..
    its spending that matters, why’s that such a scandal?
    The money sloshes through the pipes and the sluices
    revitalizing the economy’s juices

    it’s just like an engine that’s stalled and gone dark
    To bring it to life, we need a quick spark
    Spending’s the life blood that gets the flow going
    Where it goes doesn’t matter, just get spending flowing

    HAYEK

    You see slack in some sectors as a “general glut”
    But some sectors are healthy, only some in a rut
    So spending’s not free – that’s the heart of the matter
    too much is wasted as cronies get fatter.

    The economy’s not a car, there’s no engine to stall
    no expert can fix it, there’s no “it” at all.
    The economy’s us, we don’t need a mechanic
    Put away the wrenches, the economy’s organic

    REFRAIN REPEATS

    KEYNES
    so what would you do to help those unemployed?
    this is the question you seem to avoid
    when we’re in a mess, would you just have us wait?
    Doing nothing until markets equilibrate?

    HAYEK

    I don’t want to do nothing, there’s plenty to do
    The question I ponder is who plans for whom?
    Do I plan for myself or leave it to you?
    I want plans by the many, not by the few.

    Let’s not repeat what created our troubles
    I want real growth not a series of bubbles
    Stop bailing out loser, let prices work
    If we don’t try to steer them they won’t go berserk

    KEYNES

    Come on, Are you kidding? Don’t Wall Street’s gyrations
    Challenge your world view of self-regulation?
    Even you must admit that the lesson we’ve learned
    Is more oversight’s needed or else we’ll get burned

    HAYEK

    Oversight? The government’s long been in bed
    With those Wall Street execs and the firms that they’ve bled
    Capitalism’s about profit and loss
    you bail out the losers there’s no end to the cost

    the lesson I’ve learned? It’s how little we know,
    the world is complex, not some circular flow
    the economy’s not a class you can master in college
    to think otherwise is the pretense of knowledge

    REFRAIN REPEATS

    KEYNES
    You get on your high horse and you’re off to the races
    I look at the world on a case by case basis
    When people are suffering I roll up my sleeves
    And do what I can to cure our disease

    The future’s uncertain, our outlooks are frail
    Thats why free markets are so prone to fail
    In a volatile world we need more discretion
    So state intervention can counter depression

    HAYEK

    People aren’t chessmen you move on a board
    at your whim–their dreams and desires ignored
    With political incentives, discretion’s a joke
    Those dials you’re twisting… just mirrors and smoke

    We need stable rules and real market prices
    so prosperity emerges and cuts short the crisis
    give us a chance so we can discover
    the most valuable ways to serve one another

    FINAL REFRAIN

    Which way should we choose?
    more bottom up or more top down
    the fight continues…
    Keynes and Hayek’s second round

    it’s time to weigh in…
    more from the top or from the ground
    …lets listen to the greats
    Keynes and Hayek throwing down

    Hãy chia sẻ suy nghĩ của bạn

    2 phản hồi

    Giang Le - Central planning

    Năm ngoái một thầy giáo VN có sáng kiến hát nhạc rap để dậy các kiến thức vật lý phổ thông, tình cờ một nhóm economists ở Mỹ cũng sử dụng hình thức "giảng bài" mới mẻ này để truyền bá chủ để Keynes vs Hayek và họ cũng rất thành công như thầy giáo vật lý ở VN. Video bài nhạc rap trên Youtube đã có hơn 2 triệu lượt người xem và đã được giới econblogs ca ngợi hết lời (me too :)). Tuần trước phần 2 của video này xuất hiện trên Youtube và lại được rất nhiều econblogger nặng ký link đến (Taylor, Mankiw, DeLong, Cowen, Free Exchange).

    Sáng nay cả Krugman và Vietstudies link đến một bài của Jonathan Chait có trích dẫn ý kiến của David Frum về video này cho rằng chỉ trích Keynes ủng hộ central planning là sai. Frum cho rằng Keynes không bao giờ ủng hộ central planning theo mô hình Xô viết vào thời điểm 30-40 mà ông cổ súy cho government spending trong giai đoạn Great Depression khi private consumption/investment sụt giảm. Krugman cũng nhiều lần nhấn mạnh vào điểm này và chỉ ra vai trò của government trong giai đoạn nền kinh tế bị rơi vào liquidity trap. Tuy nhiên Tyler Cowen vừa trích dẫn một đoạn Keynes viết cho Hayek phản hồi quyển "The road to serfdom" như sau:

    "I should say that what we want is not no planning, or even less planning, indeed I should say that we almost certainly want more."

    Câu này cũng được Daniel Yergin và Joseph Stanislaw trích dẫn trong bộ phim và quyển sách Commanding Heights (đã được NXB Tri thức phát hành bằng tiếng Việt) như là bằng chứng cho việc Keynese ủng hộ central planning. [Ngoài lề: Năm 2006 tôi và một số đồng nghiệp ở Fulbright school đã dịch và lồng tiếng cho bộ phim này để chiếu cho sinh viên xem. Tôi đã được phân công lồng một đoạn tiếng của Keynes :-)]. Đây là một bộ phim/sách rất hay (highly recommended), nhưng tiếc là các tác giả đã "frame" tư tưởng của Keynes thành central planning theo mô hình Xô viết mà Hayek kiên quyết chống. Bộ phim này đã popularize cụm từ "fight of the century" thành biểu tượng song hành của cuộc đấu tranh giữa socialism vs capitalism (hay central planning vs free market) và Keynes vs Hayek trong thế kỷ 20. Đây là điều bất công cho Keynes và cho cả ... Marx.

    Quan điểm cá nhân của tôi là vai trò của government trong một nền kinh tế thị trường có dạng Laffer curve (inverted U-shape). Nghĩa là cả Laissez Faire và central planning kiểu Xô viết đều là non-optimum extremes, một điểm tối ưu phải nằm ở giữa 2 thái cực này. Tôi không rõ hiện tại Mỹ và các nước tư bản phát triển đã vượt qua đỉnh chưa (nếu chưa thì Keynes đúng còn nếu rồi thì Hayek đúng :)), nhưng tôi tin chắc rằng VN đã vượt qua đỉnh. Nghĩa là giảm bớt government intervention/central planning sẽ có lợi hơn cho nền kinh tế.

    Theo blog Giang Le

    Phần 1 của "trận đấu thế kỷ":

    Fear the Boom and Bust

    A Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem

    In Fear the Boom and Bust, John Maynard Keynes and F. A. Hayek, two of the great economists of the 20th century, come back to life to attend an economics conference on the economic crisis. Before the conference begins, and at the insistence of Lord Keynes, they go out for a night on the town and sing about why there’s a “boom and bust” cycle in modern economies and good reason to fear it.

    SING ALONG
    We’ve been going back and forth for a century
    [Keynes] I want to steer markets,
    [Hayek] I want them set free
    There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
    [Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
    [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits
    [Keynes Sings:]

    John Maynard Keynes, wrote the book on modern macro
    The man you need when the economy’s off track, [whoa]
    Depression, recession now your question’s in session
    Have a seat and I’ll school you in one simple lesson

    BOOM, 1929 the big crash
    We didn’t bounce back—economy’s in the trash
    Persistent unemployment, the result of sticky wages
    Waiting for recovery? Seriously? That’s outrageous!

    I had a real plan any fool can understand
    The advice, real simple—boost aggregate demand!
    C, I, G, all together gets to Y
    Make sure the total’s growing, watch the economy fly

    We’ve been going back and forth for a century
    [Keynes] I want to steer markets,
    [Hayek] I want them set free
    There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
    [Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
    [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits

    You see it’s all about spending, hear the register cha-ching
    Circular flow, the dough is everything
    So if that flow is getting low, doesn’t matter the reason
    We need more government spending, now it’s stimulus season

    So forget about saving, get it straight out of your head
    Like I said, in the long run—we’re all dead
    Savings is destruction, that’s the paradox of thrift
    Don’t keep money in your pocket, or that growth will never lift…

    because…

    Business is driven by the animal spirits
    The bull and the bear, and there’s reason to fear its
    Effects on capital investment, income and growth
    That’s why the state should fill the gap with stimulus both…

    The monetary and the fiscal, they’re equally correct
    Public works, digging ditches, war has the same effect
    Even a broken window helps the glass man have some wealth
    The multiplier driving higher the economy’s health

    And if the Central Bank’s interest rate policy tanks
    A liquidity trap, that new money’s stuck in the banks!
    Deficits could be the cure, you been looking for
    Let the spending soar, now that you know the score

    My General Theory’s made quite an impression
    [a revolution] I transformed the econ profession
    You know me, modesty, still I’m taking a bow
    Say it loud, say it proud, we’re all Keynesians now

    We’ve been goin’ back n forth for a century
    [Keynes] I want to steer markets,
    [Hayek] I want them set free
    There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
    [Keynes] I made my case, Freddie H
    Listen up , Can you hear it?

    Hayek sings:

    I’ll begin in broad strokes, just like my friend Keynes
    His theory conceals the mechanics of change,
    That simple equation, too much aggregation
    Ignores human action and motivation

    And yet it continues as a justification
    For bailouts and payoffs by pols with machinations
    You provide them with cover to sell us a free lunch
    Then all that we’re left with is debt, and a bunch

    If you’re living high on that cheap credit hog
    Don’t look for cure from the hair of the dog
    Real savings come first if you want to invest
    The market coordinates time with interest

    Your focus on spending is pushing on thread
    In the long run, my friend, it’s your theory that’s dead
    So sorry there, buddy, if that sounds like invective
    Prepare to get schooled in my Austrian perspective

    We’ve been going back and forth for a century
    [Keynes] I want to steer markets,
    [Hayek] I want them set free
    There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
    [Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
    [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits

    The place you should study isn’t the bust
    It’s the boom that should make you feel leery, that’s the thrust
    Of my theory, the capital structure is key.
    Malinvestments wreck the economy

    The boom gets started with an expansion of credit
    The Fed sets rates low, are you starting to get it?
    That new money is confused for real loanable funds
    But it’s just inflation that’s driving the ones

    Who invest in new projects like housing construction
    The boom plants the seeds for its future destruction
    The savings aren’t real, consumption’s up too
    And the grasping for resources reveals there’s too few

    So the boom turns to bust as the interest rates rise
    With the costs of production, price signals were lies
    The boom was a binge that’s a matter of fact
    Now its devalued capital that makes up the slack.

    Whether it’s the late twenties or two thousand and five
    Booming bad investments, seems like they’d thrive
    You must save to invest, don’t use the printing press
    Or a bust will surely follow, an economy depressed

    Your so-called “stimulus” will make things even worse
    It’s just more of the same, more incentives perversed
    And that credit crunch ain’t a liquidity trap
    Just a broke banking system, I’m done, that’s a wrap.

    We’ve been goin’ back n forth for a century
    [Keynes] I want to steer markets,
    [Hayek] I want them set free
    There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
    [Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
    [Keynes] No it’s the animal spirits

    “The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”

    John Maynard Keynes
    The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money

    “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”

    F A Hayek
    The Fatal Conceit
    Nguồn: http://econstories.tv/2010/06/22/fear-the-boom-and-bust/